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The first of the projections we call the "symmetric" projection. It simply assumes that oil production will decrease in the future in a manner similar to the way that it increased in the past. This method assumes that 2006 is the peak year; 2007 production will be equal to 2005 production; 2008 production will be equal to 2004; and so on. Thus, the future is expected to be a mirror image of the past.
The second projection is what we call the "analyst average" method. Here, we average five projections assuming peak in the 2005 to 2007 period - two made by Ace, one made by Bakhtiari, and two made by Robelius. We have adjusted all of the projections to a "total liquids" basis for this comparison (that is, including ethanol and other liquid fuels that are similar to oil), so that they are comparable to each other and to the historical data.
Figure 1 shows that the projection methods produce fairly similar results. Both methods show production declining fairly rapidly:
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